By Greg Smith on Monday, July 23rd, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Sterling slides on weak data It was a challenging week for UK data and politics as sterling slides to recent lows against the dollar and euro. The depreciation was a reaction to weaker than expected data and uncertainty around Brexit. Inflation for June was well below forecasts at 2.4% whilst retail sales […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 16th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Turbulent politics remain Despite a turbulent week in politics, the UK outlook appears relatively positive. The UK monthly GDP released last week showed positive momentum growing. We also expect to see positive UK labour market data and retail sales this week which will further bolster the picture of second-quarter growth. We also expect […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 9th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Stronger PMIs, weakened May Last week saw all of the June PMI surveys better than market expectations. The composite PMI showed strong growth at 55.2. Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Carney said that he is more confident that the first quarter GDP growth slowdown was temporary and that the economy is evolving as […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 2nd, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – PMIs and PM May’s meeting Data continued to point to a robust economy with first quarter GDP revised up to 0.2% following stronger construction numbers along with stronger manufacturing PMI. Bank of England economist, Andy Haldane highlighted pay growth as key in his decision to vote for a rate hike. With this in […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 25th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Hawkish shift from MPC At the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday, there was an unexpectedly hawkish shift in voting policy. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep rates at 0.5% which was a surprise for the markets (7-2 last month). The fact that it was the Bank’s Chief Economist, […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 18th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – MPC likely no change The recent data has been worse than expected for the UK. Last week, industrial production fell and construction output was weaker. Inflation was steady at 2.4% and retail sales increased by 1.3%, though this is unlikely to be enough to move the Monetary Policy into action – MPC likely […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 11th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Key votes on EU withdrawal bill On the political side, there are key votes on EU withdrawal bill as MPs meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. Theresa May plans to overturn amendments made by the House of Lords. There are two controversial amendments that give the most concern to the government. The first instructs the […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 4th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Positive PMIs support sterling Last week we saw improvements in consumer confidence and manufacturing PMI, suggesting an increase in activity. There is now close to 40% chance of an August rate hike in the UK, as positive PMIs support sterling. We started the week with an unexpected improvement in the construction PMI, showing […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, May 29th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Sterling remains weak but data improving Last week provided an early indication that we may see a recovery in the second quarter after the first quarter slowdown, though sterling remains weak. Retail sales for April showed an increase of 1.6%, in a strong improvement from March’s decline. There are expectations that the data […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, May 21st, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Sterling lows for the year We start the week on the back foot with sterling year lows against the dollar. Reports over the weekend suggest that some backbench Tory MPs are preparing for a snap general election in the coming months. Last week’s labour market for the three months to March, which showed […]
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