By Greg Smith on Monday, June 25th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Hawkish shift from MPC At the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday, there was an unexpectedly hawkish shift in voting policy. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to keep rates at 0.5% which was a surprise for the markets (7-2 last month). The fact that it was the Bank’s Chief Economist, […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 18th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – MPC likely no change The recent data has been worse than expected for the UK. Last week, industrial production fell and construction output was weaker. Inflation was steady at 2.4% and retail sales increased by 1.3%, though this is unlikely to be enough to move the Monetary Policy into action – MPC likely […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 11th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Key votes on EU withdrawal bill On the political side, there are key votes on EU withdrawal bill as MPs meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. Theresa May plans to overturn amendments made by the House of Lords. There are two controversial amendments that give the most concern to the government. The first instructs the […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 4th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Positive PMIs support sterling Last week we saw improvements in consumer confidence and manufacturing PMI, suggesting an increase in activity. There is now close to 40% chance of an August rate hike in the UK, as positive PMIs support sterling. We started the week with an unexpected improvement in the construction PMI, showing […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, May 29th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Sterling remains weak but data improving Last week provided an early indication that we may see a recovery in the second quarter after the first quarter slowdown, though sterling remains weak. Retail sales for April showed an increase of 1.6%, in a strong improvement from March’s decline. There are expectations that the data […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, May 21st, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Sterling lows for the year We start the week on the back foot with sterling year lows against the dollar. Reports over the weekend suggest that some backbench Tory MPs are preparing for a snap general election in the coming months. Last week’s labour market for the three months to March, which showed […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, May 14th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Rate hike delayed The main event of the past week was the monetary policy update from the Bank of England. With the slowdown in recent economic data and comments from Governor Carney, it was no surprise to see the potential rate hike delayed. The focus was therefore on the monetary policy committee’s future […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, May 8th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Sterling weakness continues Last week saw further falls in the value of sterling against the dollar, as the sterling weakness continued. The Purchasing Managers Indices (PMI) were less positive, with manufacturing and construction showing weaker than expected growth. Services PMI provided a rebound, though it was smaller than expected. The Brexit spectre raised […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, April 30th, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – sterling slides Sterling slides as recent UK economic data and comments from Governor Mark Carney suggest that the Bank of England will not raise interest rates at the next meeting on 10 May. From being a near certainty, there is now only a 20% chance that we see rates rise. Consumer price inflation, […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, April 3rd, 2018
in Market InsightsGBP – Resilient economy supports The UK continues to display a resilient economy with strong growth and labour markets approaching full employment. Fourth quarter GDP growth came in at 0.4%, giving overall growth of 1.7% for 2017. This is substantially higher than the estimate of just 0.5% after the Brexit referendum and provides support to sterling. […]
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