By Greg Smith on Monday, January 6th, 2020
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Withdrawal Bill to pass Following the New Year fireworks, UK parliament reconvenes tomorrow with the final passage of the EU Withdrawal Bill being the first order of business. Three days of discussion are scheduled and then the bill is expected to go to the House of Lords. With the Government’s large majority, the […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, December 16th, 2019
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – New Conservative government Last week, the Conservatives secured the biggest majority since 1987. The pound topped $1.35 and €1.20 for the first time since May 2018 and April 2017 respectively. The new Conservative government is due to be recalled to Parliament tomorrow to swear in the new MPs. A Queen’s Speech may take […]
By Greg Smith on Friday, December 13th, 2019
in Blog, Market Insights
Despite a narrowing of the polls, the Conservative Party won a decisive election victory with 364 seats. (With 1 seat still to announce). This election result gives Boris Johnson a clear majority in Parliament. Most of the gains came from traditional Labour seats and leave-voting constituencies. After a disastrous election result, Jeremy Corbyn will stand […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, December 9th, 2019
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Markets expect Conservative majority Markets wait for the general election result with the opinion polls still pointing to a Conservative majority. Sterling touched its highest level since 2017 against the euro and also moved up against the US dollar. An exit poll will be available as soon as the polls close at 10pm […]
By Greg Smith on Wednesday, December 4th, 2019
in Blog, Market Insights
As the General Election approaches on 12th December, the polls suggest that we will see a Conservative majority. However, some recent polls have shown Labour narrowing that lead, as they did ahead of the 2017 election. There has been a direct correlation between how sterling performs and the chances of a Conservative majority, with sterling […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, December 2nd, 2019
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Narrowing of polls We continue to focus on the UK election polls ahead of all other data. The markets are now dissecting polls to the “multilevel regression and post-stratification”-type methodology. The only poll using this technique predicted a hung parliament in 2017 and is currently predicting a Conservative majority of around 70. The […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, November 25th, 2019
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Tories retain election poll lead The general election remains the main focus for UK financial markets. All political parties have launched their manifestos with the Conservatives launching theirs this weekend. Last week saw televised debate between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. There are a number of additional debates due this week and next. […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, November 18th, 2019
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Focus on election polls Focus remains on UK election polls. Bookmakers now have the probability of a Conservative majority at greater than 50%. As a result, markets pretty much ignored the past week’s data. This was generally softer than expected, including GDP, labour market statistics, CPI inflation and retail sales. Polls suggest that […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, November 11th, 2019
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Bank of England dovish A more dovish-than-expected policy update from the Bank of England last week dented sterling strength. The BoE left the Base Rate unchanged at 0.75%. Two policymakers did vote for an immediate cut. The forward guidance also moved from an upward bias on rates to a balanced outlook. The Bank […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, November 4th, 2019
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Parliament to be dissolved Parliament is due to be dissolved on Wednesday for five weeks ahead of the general election. The revised Withdrawal Agreement Bill is now on hold until after the election. The result of the election is even more unpredictable than usual. The Conservatives have a lead in the latest opinion […]
