By Greg Smith on Wednesday, December 4th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsAs the General Election approaches on 12th December, the polls suggest that we will see a Conservative majority. However, some recent polls have shown Labour narrowing that lead, as they did ahead of the 2017 election. There has been a direct correlation between how sterling performs and the chances of a Conservative majority, with sterling […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, December 2nd, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Narrowing of polls We continue to focus on the UK election polls ahead of all other data. The markets are now dissecting polls to the “multilevel regression and post-stratification”-type methodology. The only poll using this technique predicted a hung parliament in 2017 and is currently predicting a Conservative majority of around 70. The […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, November 25th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Tories retain election poll lead The general election remains the main focus for UK financial markets. All political parties have launched their manifestos with the Conservatives launching theirs this weekend. Last week saw televised debate between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. There are a number of additional debates due this week and next. […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, November 18th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Focus on election polls Focus remains on UK election polls. Bookmakers now have the probability of a Conservative majority at greater than 50%. As a result, markets pretty much ignored the past week’s data. This was generally softer than expected, including GDP, labour market statistics, CPI inflation and retail sales. Polls suggest that […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, November 11th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Bank of England dovish A more dovish-than-expected policy update from the Bank of England last week dented sterling strength. The BoE left the Base Rate unchanged at 0.75%. Two policymakers did vote for an immediate cut. The forward guidance also moved from an upward bias on rates to a balanced outlook. The Bank […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, November 4th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Parliament to be dissolved Parliament is due to be dissolved on Wednesday for five weeks ahead of the general election. The revised Withdrawal Agreement Bill is now on hold until after the election. The result of the election is even more unpredictable than usual. The Conservatives have a lead in the latest opinion […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, October 28th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Election date before parliament Last week, the House of Commons supported Boris Johnson’s Brexit withdrawal agreement in principle at a second reading. Parliament didn’t, however, agree to his fast-track timetable that could have allowed completion before 31st October. As a result, parliament is expected to vote on Boris’ plan for a general election […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, October 21st, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Sterling higher on new Brexit deal A revised Brexit deal was agreed by the UK and EU after intense negotiations leading up to the EU Summit. The new withdrawal agreement does not, however, have the backing of the DUP. The proposals removed the unpopular Northern Ireland backstop but leave a regulatory and customs […]
By Greg Smith on Wednesday, October 16th, 2019
in Blog, Market Insights, NewsLatest Quarterly Currency Market Forecast October – December 2019 Our latest Quarterly Currency Market Forecast is ready for you to download and read. Essential reading for anyone making or receiving international payments. Geopolitical uncertainty has become just about the only certainty of 2019 with America’s trade wars and Brexit stumbling from crisis to crisis with no […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, October 14th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Sterling rebounds on hopes for Brexit Boris Johnson’s strong preference appears to be to agree a deal at the key EU Summit that he can take to parliament. The hope for a breakthrough at this EU Summit led sterling sharply higher at the end of last week. The UK government has called for […]
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