By Greg Smith on Tuesday, May 26th, 2020
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Negative rate concerns There is still plenty of concern about the possibility of negative interest rates. This has continued to weigh on sterling. Last week, BoE policymakers again didn’t rule out negative rates but confirmed that other options are likely first. As a result, sterling continues to trade towards the bottom of recent […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, May 18th, 2020
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Positive PMI increases? With the easing in lockdown restrictions, markets will be looking for signs of an initial bounce. Timelier survey data will be of most interest, with positive PMI data for the UK (and US and Eurozone) expected this week. We expect significant bounces in the manufacturing and services indices though they […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, May 11th, 2020
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Lockdown eased slightly Last week, the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.1% and maintained the existing QE programme at £645bn. Governor Bailey said the Monetary Policy Committee is ready to provide more stimulus if required. Two members of the MPC voted for an increase in bond purchases of £100bn. The […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, May 4th, 2020
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Roadmap on lockdown easing The government will release a number of papers covering the measures that each sector will be expected to take as the current restrictions are eased. There is not expected to be a timetable for ending the lockdown. However, Boris Johnson has promised a ‘roadmap’ this week. We expect to […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, April 27th, 2020
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Boris back in Downing St The markets last week were relatively unfazed by the deluge of depressing economic data releases. This included a plunge in UK services PMI to a record low of only 12.3. Global equity markets were only slightly lower on the week though 10-year gilt yields fell below 0.3%. Sterling […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, April 20th, 2020
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Lockdown into May There are growing signs across a number of countries that the pace of increase of Coronavirus infections is slowing. There is speculation that lockdown restrictions will soon be eased in some countries. The UK government, however, has confirmed that the current restrictions will continue until at least 7th May. Sterling […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, April 14th, 2020
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Lockdown to be extended Markets are watching optimistically for further evidence of a peak in cases and deaths from coronavirus. Global equity markets improved again last week. UK 10-year gilt yields have increased, suggesting that markets expect rates to increase from their record low. Brent crude oil was back above $30 a barrel […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, April 6th, 2020
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – House prices and PM Johnson watched The number of confirmed Covid-19 cases is above 1.25 million, with the death toll now close to 70,000. Italy, Germany and the US have extended their lockdowns. The number of cases and deaths continues to accelerate in many countries, including the US. The WHO has pointed to […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, March 30th, 2020
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Markets recover, PMIs continue fall Following the massive global policy stimulus over the last week, markets have recovered. Equities are still 20% lower this year and it remains to be seen if the recovery will continue. Global March PMIs fell sharply with UK services dropping to 36. The final readings of these PMIs […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, March 23rd, 2020
in Blog, Market Insights
GBP – Emergency measures from Treasury and BoE Until recently there has been little data to assess the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis. February data for China showed the extent of the impact with big falls in PMI data and exports, imports, industrial production and retail sales. This week, we will see the UK’s […]
