By Greg Smith on Monday, August 12th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – GDP hits GBP Sterling was more stable last week, until it slipped again on Friday following an unexpected fall in second-quarter GDP. The week had started more positively with an increase in services PMI to 51.4. Meanwhile, stories continue to circulate about the likely outcome of Brexit in the autumn. A vote of […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, August 5th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Sterling falls on Brexit concerns Sterling fell sharply last week as concerns increased about the possibility of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. The new Prime Minister appears to be driving towards an impasse with key EU leaders. The pound hit a 28-month low against the USD and a 22- month low against the euro. […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 29th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Brexit and BoE In his first speech as Prime Minister, Boris Johnson said that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October, “no ifs or buts”. PM Johnson called for the abolition of the Irish backstop to get Brexit through, while the EU insists the current Brexit deal is the only one […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 22nd, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – New PM Johnson? Markets have been waiting impatiently for confirmation of the new Tory Party leader and Prime Minister. PM Johnson is still odds-on favourite to be confirmed on Tuesday. The official appointment is likely to be on Wednesday, so the new PM may not have chance to address the Commons before it […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 15th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – BoE stick to rate rises Last week saw the Bank of England policymakers stick to the idea that rates should rise gradually. Over the medium term, the BoE assume a smooth Brexit with appetite to increase rates once the uncertainties subside. May GDP rebounded by 0.3%, almost reversing the 0.4% drop in April. […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 8th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Bank of England to be more dovish? The Bank of England has looked like an exception to the dovish stances taken by the other major central banks. The May Inflation Report signalled gradual rate increases. In contrast, recent comments from US Fed officials could agree on a rate cut as early as the […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, July 1st, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – PMIs slow growth suggested For this week, the UK’s economic calendar is fairly light. Analysts expect the June PMIs to show modest increases in all three sectors. Their overall level is likely to indicate slow overall GDP growth. Manufacturing dipped below 50 in May but is expected to move back to 50. The […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 24th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – BoE holds rates Last week, the Bank of England left rates unchanged, though expectations are still for gradual rate rises. This week, BoE Governor Carney and fellow MPC members Cunliffe, Tenreyro and Saunders testify on the latest Inflation Report at the Treasury Select Committee after the BoE holds rates. The assumptions within the […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 17th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – BoE to hold again The Bank of England provides a policy update and is still suggesting that UK interest rates will eventually rise. However, given the Brexit uncertainty, the Committee is likely to say that they should hold fire for now. Thursday’s policy update is likely to be another unanimous vote for no […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 10th, 2019
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Conservative leadership Round One The focus since last week has been the start of the Conservative leadership contest. Theresa May will remain as PM until a new leader is chosen. Today is the deadline for nominations and a new leader is expected by 26th July. Under new party rules, candidates need to be nominated […]
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