By Greg Smith on Monday, June 9th, 2025
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – UK fiscal plans and pivotal jobs/GDP data come into focus The spotlight this week shifts to UK fiscal plans and economic data. Chancellor Reeves will deliver the Comprehensive Spending Review on Wednesday, outlining departmental budgets for the next three years and investment plans for four years beyond. While the review will highlight the […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, June 2nd, 2025
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Modest moves amid mixed UK data and a cautious BoE Sterling found support last week as UK inflation data surprised to the upside. April’s Consumer Price Index jumped to 3.5% year-on-year (vs. ~3.3% expected), its highest since early 2024. This unexpected rise, alongside signs of persistent food price pressures, led investors to scale […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, May 27th, 2025
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Stronger UK Retail Sales Lift Pound – Inflation Delays BoE Cuts Sterling gained momentum following strong retail data and improved services activity. Retail sales rose by 1.2% MoM in April and by 5.0% YoY, signalling strong consumer spending. The S&P Global Services PMI improved to 50.2, returning to expansion territory. Inflation data earlier […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, May 19th, 2025
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Growth, but only just, for the UK with Inflation to come Last week, Sterling traded sideways after mixed UK data. The Q1 GDP print confirmed that the UK economy grew by just 0.1%, avoiding recession but offering little momentum. Unemployment edged higher to 4.3%, while wage growth slowed to 5.3%, easing pressure on […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, May 12th, 2025
in Blog, Market InsightsBy Greg Smith on Tuesday, October 10th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – August GDP is expected to bounce back to growth This week, we will see the monthly GDP for August. The July figure saw a drop as a result of strike action and poor weather. The markets expect a rebound in August of up to 0.3%. Consumer-facing services and construction activity should have benefited […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, October 3rd, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Latest updates on weakening economy and inflation As we close out the third quarter, the focus remains on the future path of inflation and interest rates. Within bond markets, the rise over this quarter has been significant. With central banks close to the end of their hiking cycles, it would be typical to […]
By Greg Smith on Wednesday, September 27th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Bank of England hold rates at 5.25%, to watch data Last week, the major surprise was that the Bank of England committee voted not to hike by 5-4. Governor Bailey was the casting vote and decided on no rate hike. This follows 14 consecutive rate hikes that started at the end of 2021. […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, September 19th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Bank of England likely to hike rates by 0.25% to 5.5% The announcement by the Bank of England will be the key focus in the UK. Most people expect the BoE to hike rates by a further 0.25% to 5.50%. This will be the 15th meeting in a row that rates have increased. […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, September 12th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Falling inflation expectations and weaker labour market Inflation expectations have fallen in the Bank of England’s DMP business survey. There was dovish testimony last week from Governor Bailey that a marked fall in inflation is likely this year. Mr Bailey suggested that monetary policy is probably near the top of the cycle, similar […]
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