By Greg Smith on Tuesday, May 27th, 2025
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Stronger UK Retail Sales Lift Pound – Inflation Delays BoE Cuts Sterling gained momentum following strong retail data and improved services activity. Retail sales rose by 1.2% MoM in April and by 5.0% YoY, signalling strong consumer spending. The S&P Global Services PMI improved to 50.2, returning to expansion territory. Inflation data earlier […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, May 19th, 2025
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Growth, but only just, for the UK with Inflation to come Last week, Sterling traded sideways after mixed UK data. The Q1 GDP print confirmed that the UK economy grew by just 0.1%, avoiding recession but offering little momentum. Unemployment edged higher to 4.3%, while wage growth slowed to 5.3%, easing pressure on […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, May 12th, 2025
in Blog, Market InsightsBy Greg Smith on Tuesday, October 10th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – August GDP is expected to bounce back to growth This week, we will see the monthly GDP for August. The July figure saw a drop as a result of strike action and poor weather. The markets expect a rebound in August of up to 0.3%. Consumer-facing services and construction activity should have benefited […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, October 3rd, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Latest updates on weakening economy and inflation As we close out the third quarter, the focus remains on the future path of inflation and interest rates. Within bond markets, the rise over this quarter has been significant. With central banks close to the end of their hiking cycles, it would be typical to […]
By Greg Smith on Wednesday, September 27th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Bank of England hold rates at 5.25%, to watch data Last week, the major surprise was that the Bank of England committee voted not to hike by 5-4. Governor Bailey was the casting vote and decided on no rate hike. This follows 14 consecutive rate hikes that started at the end of 2021. […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, September 19th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Bank of England likely to hike rates by 0.25% to 5.5% The announcement by the Bank of England will be the key focus in the UK. Most people expect the BoE to hike rates by a further 0.25% to 5.50%. This will be the 15th meeting in a row that rates have increased. […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, September 12th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Falling inflation expectations and weaker labour market Inflation expectations have fallen in the Bank of England’s DMP business survey. There was dovish testimony last week from Governor Bailey that a marked fall in inflation is likely this year. Mr Bailey suggested that monetary policy is probably near the top of the cycle, similar […]
By Greg Smith on Wednesday, September 6th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Governor Bailey testifies; Pill sees restrictive rates for some time The outlook for UK interest rates remains in focus, with expectations growing that we are reaching a peak. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, speaking in Cape Town, suggested that he would like to see a Table Mountain profile. His suggestion is […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, August 29th, 2023
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Focus remains on rates, with a weakening economy The focus across markets continues to be whether the global economy can avoid a serious downturn and achieve a soft(ish) landing. Following on from this, interest rates continue to be the number one issue. Rates are probably close to a peak across all major markets, […]
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