By Greg Smith on Monday, October 11th, 2021
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – GDP and labour market reports This week, August GDP data is likely to show the economy growing at a weaker pace than the first half of the year. In July, the growth rate was the slowest since January at just 0.1%. This slowdown was mainly due to supply constraints. The underlying rate of […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, October 4th, 2021
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Sterling wobble despite rate expectations The past week has been volatile again with concerns about rising inflation and weakening growth. They are both linked to supply-side disruptions stemming from the pandemic. Current disruption in UK petrol supply is an example and latest updates on delivery issues will be closely watched. The government’s furlough […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, September 27th, 2021
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Policy unchanged but inflation higher for longer Last week, the Bank of England left policy unchanged. The Base Rate remains at 0.1%, but an additional MPC member unexpectedly joined Saunders in voting for an early end to QE. While the majority still favour completing the current £895bn bond-buying programme, Ramsden’s switch to ending […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, September 20th, 2021
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Bank of England to leave policy unchanged The Bank of England gives a policy update this week follows a slowing of economic activity over the summer months. After the initial surge when restrictions were eased, this deceleration may have more to do with supply constraints. There are two new policymakers – Huw Pill […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, September 13th, 2021
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Inflation rebound and Strong employment expected The GDP data last week showed that the economy grew by 0.1% in July. This is much lower than the 1% rise in June, and lower than markets expected. Following the very strong growth rate in the second quarter as the economy reopened, a slowdown was expected […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, September 6th, 2021
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Strong growth expected to moderate Economic growth has been strong and this is expected to continue. The rate of growth is likely to be at more ‘normal’ rates through the second half of the year. In the second quarter, GDP increased by 4.8% as reopening boosted output, particularly in hospitality. The Bank of […]
By Greg Smith on Tuesday, August 31st, 2021
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Services PMI shows surprising drop The data calendar is light in this shorter bank holiday week. The Lloyds Business Barometer will give an update on business sentiment. Confidence reached a three-year high in May. Since then it has not changed much as firms weigh up their own situation and the broader economic outlook. […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, August 23rd, 2021
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Sterling falls on weaker data The pound has been on the back foot over the last week, following some weaker data. Against the US dollar, there has also been demand for the US currency as a safe haven. The fall in inflation back to the 2% target level was not entirely unexpected and […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, August 16th, 2021
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – Inflation to fall before a push higher One of the most anticipated pieces of data this week will be the inflation figures. CPI inflation increased from 0.4% in February to 2.5% in June. We expect it to move higher over the coming months. The Bank of England’s recent update forecast inflation moving up […]
By Greg Smith on Monday, August 9th, 2021
in Blog, Market InsightsGBP – BoE hold but increase inflation forecasts As expected, last week, the Bank of England held interest rates at 0.1% and asset purchases at £895bn to be completed this year. There was a single dissenter, Michael Saunders, who favoured an early end to QE. The BoE did revise its inflation forecasts, with inflation expected […]
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